With political concerns—including the impeachment inquiry, Brexit, and the U.S.-China trade war—likely to be resolved early in the year, uncertainty should be reduced significantly. Major market indicators have moved closer to recessionary levels, however, meaning there’s a chance of a downturn.
Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s chief investment officer, looks at several factors that will impact where we’re headed, including:
- Job growth and consumer confidence
- Business confidence and investment
- Government spending and the balance of trade
Most indicators point to slower but continued growth in 2020 as the underlying fundamentals continue to weaken.There is a real risk of a recession since the expansion cycle has lasted much longer than usual. But, even if we do experience a downturn sometime in the new year, it should be much milder than many fear.